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Robots and Chips's avatar

This is a really comprhensive overview of what's happening in private credit right now. The tension between Easterly's warnings about lower returns and the continued AUM growth is something that applies across the board to firms like Ares, Apollo, and Blue Owl. Ares has been pretty aggresive about deployment especially in the infrastucture and direct lending space, but I think what you're pointing out about performance dispersion is going to be the real story over the next few years. The firms that can move capital efficiently across strategies, like Ares does with their credit and real assets platforms, will probably weather this better than single-strategy shops. The debt-for-equity swaps you mentioned are just the beginning. Good work putting this all together.

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